LET THEM CROSS THE BORDER

Recently, in Turkey, there is a severe debate over a possible cross border military operation against PKK in Northern Iraq, Southern Kurdistan. Political parties, business organizations, non-governmental organizations, military and civilians are debating about the costs and benefits of such an operation. Thus, all of Turkey is divided, basically, into two groups ; one sees the cross border operation as a crucial milestone to annihilate the Kurds' nation building activities in Southern Kurdistan, in general, and the PKK, in particular; the other defends that such an action will put Turkey in a troublesome situation and isolate it in the international arena--if still exists after the operation.

The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq enhanced Southern Kurdistan's political position remarkably. After a long time, Kurds were on the brink of their independence. This fact gave fear to the neighboring countries because their main concern was the possible influence of an independent Kurdish state on the Kurdish populations within their boundaries. Turkey,the biggest coward, cooperated with Iran and Syria to weaken--or better, destroy--the new born Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). In addition to signing official and unofficial agreements against the Kurdish people and conducting brutal black operations in Kurdistan, Turkey used, and still is using, the PKK as an excuse to justify its military operations. Turkey claims that the PKK launches its operations from South Kurdistan, however most of the PKK fighters are located within Turkey, while only a small number of them reside on Mount Qendil. Turkey's operations aim to destabilize and then destroy the KRG. As the KRG practices its de facto independence, it faces Turkey's cross-border operation threats. Turkey is like a beast which has a thick piece of wood in its hand and threatens to hit people on the head at any moment. Repeating the same threats over and over tires people and they prefer to be hit once rather than be disturbed one hundred times. Thus, Turkey's credibility is beyond seriousness; however, if somehow it carries out a comprehensive cross-border operation aiming at KRG, that will not only be its last operation but also the last time the international arena knows it as the Turkish Republic. For that reason, let the Turks cross the border.

Firstly, in world politics the conventional wisdom is that major powers usually try to keep the “status quo”, even though in some international relations ( IR) theories the contrary is the case. Any remarkable deviation or any unexpected change from current policies or situations, requires a cost-benefit analysis for each state. If benefits are higher than costs, they take their position according to new change. If not, they will try to change the cause in way that will favor themselves. Turkey's cross-border operation would be a major change in the international arena in terms of political, geopolitical, economic, and military consequences. Since the status quo favors the major powers, they will oppose any operation which will result in new alliances, new threats, or the re-balancing of power distribution all over the globe.

For the US, it will not want one more problem in Iraq and more debates at home. For China, it will make sure that oil flow through oil-rich Southern Kurdistan will not be interrupted. Talabani and Hu Jintao, the president of China (PRC), reached several trade agreements and China erased all of Iraq's previous debts. Besides Turkey does not have a good reputation in the eyes of the Chinese government because Turkey sheltered ethnic Turk Uygur separatists from the Xingyan region of China. China wanted Turkey to hand them over but Turkey refused to do so. China definitely will be upset with Turkey's possible operation. Russia, on the other hand, is complaining louder nowadays about the American presence in the Middle East. Russian President Putin thinks that the U.S. aims to exploit the oil and water resources in the whole region, including countries over which Russia has influence. While urging the US to leave Iraq as soon as possible, Putin will not tolerate Turkey's cross-border operation as it may give an excuse to the US to remain in the region longer. In short, none of these “ big brothers” will permit Turkey to have a cross-border operation; furthermore, they are the permanent members of the United Nation's Security Council ( US, China, Britain,France and Russia). If Turkey has an operation, it will face several punishments ranging from economic sanctions to the use of military force, both of which will isolate Turkey from rest of the world.

Secondly, such a cross-border operation will internationalize the Kurdish Question. Turkey has spent an enormous effort to keep this question quiet and to hide her brutal policies against the Kurds until this day. Whenever a Kurdish newspaper uncovered the real face of the Turkish government, it was banned. The Kurdish TV channel, Roj TV, became a major issue between Denmark and Turkey. Finally, after losing the arm-wrestling against Denmark, Turkey tried to block the channel's frequencies so as not to be broadcast in Northern Kurdistan. A cross-border operation by Turkey, then, will alert the international media and will show the real face of Turks to the entire world.

Thirdly, a cross-border operation will contribute to the unification of all the Kurds. The imperialist powers always used the “ Good Kurds- Bad Kurds” card. According to this card some Kurds were allies and others were enemies; this dilemma deepened the conflicts between the Kurds. For instance, KDP and PUK fought against each other for years; KDP cooperated with Turkey and had brutal operations against its own brothers, the PKK gerillas; in Turkey the Kurdish village guards armed against their, sons, daughters, uncles and sometimes sisters. However, today the Southern Kurds have a semi-autonomous state, which has a parliament, president, constitution, and sovereignty. It lacks only one thing, independence. These gains belong not only to Southern Kurds, but are accepted as gains for all the Kurdish people. All Kurds around the world see the KRG as the legitimate face of Kurds in the international arena. Thus, any threat to this entity will be treated as a threat to all Kurds. The Kurds in Turkey will rebel, as will the Kurds in Iran and Syria, against their governments. For centuries, this may be the very first time that Kurdish nationalism will be at its peak level and thus may bring the only missing thing, independence.

Fourthly, Turkey's economy is very fragile. A great amount of money in circulation is based on money that does not create any value, such the money injected into the economy from the illegal drug trade. In an economy, the money in circulation must be equal to the goods and services produced. If not, it will lead to inflation, inflation will cause high interest rates, high interest rates are the last thing an investor wants. Lack of investments will cause high unemployment rate and high unemployment will lead to severe social problems. Since half of the money in the Turkish market comes from the illegal drugs, the other half is given to Turkey by International Monetary Fund (IMF) as loans. The boss of the IMF is the US, thus if Turkey insists on engaging in a cross-border operation despite the objection of the U.S., Turkey's economy will, more than likely, collapse.

With these facts, if Turkey still wants to have a military operation, let the Turks cross the border.